The Toronto Raptors: The Miami Summit, or Lack Thereof

Steve Aschburner wrote an excellent piece yesterday on NBA.com (linked here) on the free agent summit in Miami. He postulates several great thoughts on its cultural, social, and scientific significance...

As a basketball experiment, it would be fascinating to see the Xs and Os brought to life by such remarkable talents. Who would initiate the action? How would their skills mesh? Where would the outside shooting come from? Then again, with double-teams demanded at three spots, simple math says there would be 2 ½ guys left mostly open much of the time.

As chemistry and psychology experiments, we could learn much about the dynamics of ego, the power of sacrifice and the ingredients needed to bind together such strong personalities. What would the pecking order be? We pretty much know who'd be No. 3, but how would Nos. 1 and 2 get divvied up? Would Wade have squatter's rights because it was his town first? If so, what's higher in the royal flow-chart than King?

As a financial experiment, we might finally get to see how the New York Yankees' methodology of team-building works in pro basketball. The NBA largely has been protected from that by its salary cap, but this would be as close as a hoops team can get to opening the wallet for the best of the best.

Even if a spend-spend-spend approach isn't quite what the Yankees do (they're more like spend-spend-spend-spend to about the 25th power), it would force Miami and the rest of the league to find out what happens when most of the remaining players are brought in on minimum contracts. Would the Gee, Three! be surrounded by marginal talent? Or would they, on their reputations and expectations of success, lure enough solid teammates who'd take serious pay cuts to nail down rings themselves?

As a cultural experiment, seeing how such a galaxy of stars would shine away from the gyms would be fascinating, too. Would they hang together? Would they share off-court opportunities? In other words, would Bosh get a puppet and would Charles Barkley be elbowed out of the T-Mobile spots?

Finally, as a political and competitive experiment ... well, here's where things get dicey. We'd start by assuming that Cleveland and Toronto, abandoned by James and Bosh respectively, would be toast. At least for a (long) while. But what about other markets and their preference for building toward a championship the old-fashioned way? Could they compete with the instant mix of superstars, money and minimal stirring?

I have always written off the possibility that these three end up together as preposterous. Each has earned the right to carry a team on his own (some more than others). And, in their own ways, each has stated that he wants to be the man in a respective uniform. For about 24 hours now this rumor has been swirling out of control, and it appears (of course, this comes out while I'm writing this piece) that it might be just that: a rumor. But the point of it being picked up so virally by many fans and pundits alike, is that it is such a tantalizing thought. So, even if this is not going to happen, I will finish my article as if it were a done deal. Mostly because I want to, but also because - as the reason for the virility in the first place - I'm sure the three stars have given much thought about packing up and moving to South Beach together.

Firstly, I don't care if Bosh leaves Toronto, frankly I want to see him gone. In his seven years here, he has managed to lead his team to 3 playoffs wins. That's games, not series. He has put up fantastic personal numbers, but has never really been able to get more from various and talented teammates. While he says he wants to be the man for a franchise, I think he is better suited as the Robin to a Lebron/Wade Batman. He is not suited to lead, and if we kept him in TO, it would be Garnett in Minny, or Pau in Memphis all over again. Moreover, Bosh ending up in Miami with Lebron and Wade would be bittersweet. I love Miami, have a second home there and consider them to be my second team (whatever the hell that means). Further, I could chalk it up as a situation that Bosh could not pass up. Unlike if he went to, say, Houston, where there is only slightly better talent, and he would still be the franchise guy. I am grateful for his service to the City of Toronto's basketball fans, but it is time to part ways. For the benefit of both parties. If we can return a Michael Beasley, then great. Either way, the Raps move to rebuild mode immediately, so I am fairly indifferent.

Secondly, regarding the 'done deal', "massive 3" (big 3 seems to small for me) in HEAT uniforms. Some might question whether they would be dominant. Whether they would mesh well together. But the question in my mind isn't if, but how many championships they would win. Yes, bringing the three together means that the team will have to do with nine to twelve minimum salary guys, but who cares? You could put John Daly in at the five, and he would average 10, 5 and 5 (boards, dimes, if you were wondering). Especially given that Pat Riley would likely move down from his front office perch, I put the vegas over/under championship total at 5.

Thirdly, at the end of the article, Aschburner goes on to question their competitive drive if they decide to sign together. That's ludicrous. They would still have to go up against the Lakers, Celts, Mavs, Magic, Nuggs, etc. These are the three biggest names in the sport right now only by virtue of the free agency, not because they are the only talent in the league. There is no question that this would be a seismic shift and leave the Cavs and Raps high and dry (the Cavs would be worse off IMHO). But in no way is this a sign of a lack of will for competition. I would say the exact opposite. League wide talent is at an all-time high and the three would be saying that they want to pair up to face this talent. If anything I would question their competitiveness if they didn't decide to pair up.

Lastly, and most importantly, with Bosh all but gone, where do the Raps stand? We can try a patch-work for one season to see if we can salvage anything from this shipwreck... maybe Beasley comes to town. Maybe we get some interesting pieces in return for Turkoglu or Calderon. Marcus Banks and Reggie Evans are expiring deals too, maybe we can package them into a deal and return some value. 

Either way, it looks like the team will be handed to Bargnani. He's had plenty of time in the league and it's time to see what he's made of. If he can't handle it, get rid of him and blow up the team. The roster next year will be drastically different, and probably not great. Jose needs to go, he's not good enough. His body is weak, and injury prone. His defense is weak. He handles the offense perfectly and its a pleasure to watch him dime Amir for the alley, but his deficiencies are too big to ignore. Ship him, for expiring contracts even. Jack gets the starting the job. With Jose out of the picture, Turk's job as a ball handler becomes much more important and I could see him being sold to stay a Raptor. Further, I would bite that he would be useful once more. 

A starting five of Bargs, Amir (Re-Signing him is absolutely necessary) Turk, Sonny and Jack is interesting, but still pretty shit. Demar and Ed Davis off the bench are a pretty big wild-card at this point. Add in a player or two from the Calderon deal, and maybe Beasley, and the team might be alright. Do they make the playoffs? Likely not. Do they make for some entertaining games throughout the season? Sure, but few. If Demar and Bargnani, and Triano for that matter, have great off-seasons, the team might not be in bad shape. If they maintain the status quo (more likely in my mind), the situation in Raptors land looks pretty bleak. If that's the case, blow it up. Clean house. Get rid of Colangelo et al. and start fresh with the core of Demar, Sonny, Davis, Amir. The Raps can only give it a year though, and this is key. If they don't make the playoffs, BLOW IT UP! I do not want the Raptors to become mediocre hacks wadding in the middle of the pack, which a lineup of Bargs, Amir/Davis, Turk, Sonny/Demar, Jack has written all over it. We would win thirty five games, and everybody would be like, "oh well we had an alright season, let's give these guys another shot." That's not good enough. Specifically because I don't believe Toronto is a draw for major star power... unfortunately. Our success needs to come from organic growth. The Raptors need to be really bad to be really good. And we need to draft well in the process.

The Toronto Raptors: What Happens if Bosh Bolts?

There is no doubt that Chris Bosh is a superstar. A franchise player. The Raptors' best. And at this point in his career - I'm sure you have heard about it - he has negotiated the right to freedom from contract. Being that CB4 is a huge stud, this situation has attracted tones of media attention over the last few seasons. Every word he utters is scrutinized for hidden meaning. So what is he going to do? At the end of the day it is about legacy for Bosh. Should he stay in Toronto and be the man while trying to push this franchise to new heights? Should he bolt to another city and play Robin to Lebron or Wade; winning a bunch of championships in the process. Or should he start fresh as the franchise guy somewhere else.

Yesterday I wrote an expose explaining possible scenarios the Raptors could pursue if Bosh decides not to jump ship. The possibilities were not plentiful. In this post I will discuss sign and trade scenarios that may arise if Bosh decides to skip town for greener pastures.

Chris has agreed to work closely with Bryan Colangelo to return value to the team if he bounces. Don't be fooled though Raptors fans, this means Bosh is firmly in the driver's seat. Bosh has likely gone through every scenario in his head thus far. "Should I go to Miami?" "Should I push Wade to come to TO?" "Should I be the man in Chicago?" etc. If Bosh decides to bail he will tell BC which teams are suitable for him, and not the other way around. If he doesn't like the way things are going, he can simply walk and sign wherever he wants to. I read an article the other day suggesting BC should try and pawn off Turkoglu on whatever team lands Bosh. If you were Chris Bosh, would you be ok with that? I didn't think so. Bosh is one hell of an asset, so if he does decide to bolt, the situation in Raptors land will not be so bleak. Here's a rundown of possible sign and trade scenarios:

Houston: Bosh for Scola, Battier, Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger

Since Bosh is from Dallas, all three Texas based teams are in play. The Rockets are reportedly very interested in CB4 (o ya?). A starting five of Yao, Bosh, Ariza, KMart, Brooks would be championship contenders. They have publicly stated that bringing back Scola is a priority, but if Bosh says I want to be a Rocket, Scola is as good as gone. Apparently the Raptors brass are "intrigued" (ok?) by Hill. I don't think this is the best option for the Raptors, but what Bosh wants, Bosh will get. A starting five of Bargs, Scola, Turk, Sonny, Jack/Jose is not very good at all. Don't count on them making the playoffs.

Dallas: Bosh for Dirk, straight up

Not the most likely of scenarios, but I read an article recently that made a semi-convincing argument for trading Bosh for Dirk. The argument went as follows: Bosh is a Dallas native and clearly would relish the opportunity to play in his hometown. The Mavs are sick of Dirk and could use a fresh start, slot Bosh into the starting five beside Haywood, Marion, Butler and Kidd, upstart Rodrigue Beaubois and Jason Terry off the bench and this team is scary good. 

With Dirk this year the Mavs looked great in the regular season but could only muster two wins in the first round against the seasoned Spurs team. Maybe it is time for a change. Dirk does have an early termination option on his contract, so maybe he restructures for long-term stability in a sign and trade. From the Raptors perspective, is Dirk really the guy to put beside Bargs? Probably not. In this scenario, hopefully we can grab Dirk without a new deal, so that we get a huge $21.5 mil expiring contract at the end of 2011, and much needed flexibilty. Assuming nothing else changes, our starting five would be as follows, Bargs, Dirk, Turk, Sonny, Jose. I'm not sold on this at all. I think Dirk and Andrea are too similar, but they both are certainly quite talented, maybe they figure it out. We would still be atrocious on the defensive end.

San Antonio: Bosh for Tony Parker?... 

The Spurs are interesting because of their PG situation. They cannot afford to pay $13 mil to a backup point. The formula for Tim's success could be repeated by bringing in Bosh as a protege under Duncan in his last years. Duncan would have to move to center, where I think he fits nicely. Duncan, Bosh, RJ, Mason, Hill, with Manu off the bench. Not bad. The main question for the Spurs here is how well Bosh and Duncan would mesh. Getting rid of Parker seems inevitable, so if they can return a player like Bosh, that's a no brainer. Working out a trade between the Raps and Spurs would be interesting because the Spurs don't have that many pieces signed on through next season. It might have to include the contract of either Manu or RJ, at which point we could potentially include Turk or Jose. Regardless, for the Raptors, it would mean a drastic restructuring.  Not sure I love this for the Raps, falling out of Pop's favor is a bad omen.

LAL: Bosh for Bynum and Vujacic

At this season's trade deadline there were rumblings of a Bynum for Bosh swap. The raps were playing out of their heads at this point, so a trade was not in the cards. If Bosh does bail on the Raps this is one scenario that I happen to like. The Lakers would need to throw in a Sasha Vujacic ($5.5 mil expiring) for the numbers to work, but there is no question this would be an improvement. Bynum has proven to be injury prone over his short career. Gasol would have to move to the center, but I think he is best when playing center next to Lamar. Maybe we could even get them to take on Calderon for Odom?? Probably not, but it's worth mentioning that their PG situation is tied to Fisher (old), Farmar (shit) and Brown (not a starter), I think Jose would fit in perfectly as a facilitator. For the Raptors, with or without Odom this scenario is great. Granted Bynum is injury prone, but when he is playing he is the prototypical center. Bringing him in would move Bargnani to his natural 4 position and give us an anchor on the defensive end. An Odom for Calderon swap would only sweeten the deal.

Chicago: Bosh for Noah, Hinrich, other pieces

This is another scenario that I love and has received attention in the media. I know the Bulls love Noah, and who wouldn't. He works hard, has swagger, and is a perfect center. His teammates love him, fans around the league hate him. D.Rose has said that this gives his team an identity, it inspires them to play hard and compete on the road. The numbers in this trade don't match, that's why I include Hinrich and other pieces. Noah is still on his rookie contract, making a little over $3 mil next season, and the bulls have a lot of cap space coming into this summer. It's hard to say now how a deal would be structured with so many question marks, maybe we could work a third team into the mix here (Pistons, Pacers??). For the bulls I think they can't pass up the opportunity to get a guy like Bosh, even if it means giving away a fan favorite in Noah. On paper they look good and have a lot of flexibility going forward. Rose, Deng, Bosh would be a very nice top three. Re-sign Brad Miller on the cheap, and bring in a two guard and they are set. For the Raps, I don't love Hinrich, we certainly don't need him, but bringing in Noah (much like Bynum, but better) is a perfect fit beside Andrea, who could move to his natural 4 position. Noah is exactly the kind of guy the Raps need, a hard-nosed guy who can rebound with best of them, a banger with swagger.

New York: Bosh for David Lee, Toney Douglas, and change

The Knicks only have $18.6 mil in committed salary for the upcoming season, so this is another scenario where there are a bunch of question marks about how the deal would be structured. If Bosh goes to NY, it will likely be with another stud: Wade or Lebron. I don't see him heading there on his own to chill with Danillo Gallinari. I'm not the biggest David Lee fan, another undersized big. But he boards like a king, and is not injury prone. If Bosh wants to go to NY, David Lee will be coming to TO, maybe along with the expiring Eddy Curry contract ($11 mil). Boarding is an issue the Raps need to address, so if Lee can mesh well with Andrea it might be a good fit.

Cleveland: Bosh for Antawn Jamison, JJ Hickson and change

The King calls, "Yo, CB4 come live in the Cleve and win many championships with me and your boy J.Moon." Lebron is probably the most talented baller in history. If he calls you personally and asks for your services in creating a dynasty, you can't take that lightly. They would be an unbelievable team with Bosh at the 4. Coaches around the league would lose sleep over how to cover them. Throw in a cheap Shaq and Big Z and this team is ready to win big. If this panned out, they could easily afford to lose Jamison, the up and coming Hickson and to make the numbers match they would need to throw in someone else (Telfair, Powe?). The Raps would not fair well with Jamison, and probably look to move him. But again, if the King comes knocking and Bosh is wooed, there is little the Raptors can do.

Miami: Bosh for Beasley, our conditional pick back, other picks, Haslem?, O'Neal?

This scenario is similar to the last. If Wade calls and convinces Bosh to flee to beautiful Miami, there is little the Raptors can hope to get in return. The Heat have only $30.6 mil in committed salary next year, so a deal would have to involve some unsigned pieces (Haslem, O'Neal, Q.Rich, etc.) A Wade, Bosh tandem would be stellar. Sign a center and they have a wicked team. Again this leaves the Raps in a bad spot. No way Beasley becomes the player that Bosh is. He has talent, but not franchise guy talent. 

New Jersey: Bosh for Yi, Devin Harris and change

Things are looking up for the Nets. Sure they had a dismal season, but now they have the best shot in the John Wall sweepstakes. A Russian playboy billionaire owner paired with Jay-Z. A Brooklyn arena which has broken ground. Cap space gallore, and a bevy of young talent. If the Nets win the draft lottery, Devin Harris becomes expendable. If Bosh decides Brooklyn is the place for him, Yi will likely be included along with Devin Harris and other pieces to make the numbers work. A team of Bosh, Lopez, Wall, T.Will and Courtney Lee is on the way to becoming really good. Sign a couple more guys with all that cap space and this team is for real.

OKC: Bosh for Collison, Green, Harden, picks

This one is probably my favorite place for Bosh to land. First it wouldn't hurt as bad if he went to the western conference. Second, I fucking love the Thunder. Durant is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. If Bosh joined their squad they would be unstoppable. I'm not sure who would be returning to the Raps in the deal: perhaps a package of Collison, Green, Harden, and their pick. I know they love Green and have been dead set on developing this young core together, but if Bosh wanted in, they would have to consider Green, who plays the 4 for them, expendable. The group flying north to play for Canada's team would not be so great, and certainly would not replace Bosh. But at the end of the day we'll take what we can get.

Being a Raptors fan has been a roller-coaster ride over the past few seasons. I remember sitting in a burger joint in The Venetian in Las Vegas, catching the Marion deal on ESPN, and publicly making a fool of myself. The ride is not over though, in fact we are nearing that big loop-d-loop. This offseason is probably the most crucial in the history of the franchise. Whether Bosh stays or goes is the biggest question mark. If he stays great, but we need to change it up to be competitive. If he goes the situation is not dire. Bosh is as good an asset as any. Where he ends up is on him, we can only hope he's happy to go to several teams so that we can work on extracting the most value. As a Raptors fan I would say I am cautiously optimistic about our prospects for next season. We've got a lot to look forward to, and I am still convinced that BC will do a good job putting together a contender with or without Bosh.

What do you think? Drop a comment with your favorite scenario, a suggestion for a different one, something that you didn't like in here, or whatever's on your mind.

P.S. A heartfelt thank you to the boys at Raptors Republic. I've been reading their blog forever and was humbled to be included in this Morning's Coffee. 

The Toronto Raptors: An Interesting Offseason

“Honestly, we wanted to play Chicago more than Toronto in this first round, because we knew we were going to get pushed a little bit more. That's not taking away anything from Toronto. But with Bosh being out for the rest of the season, and all those injuries, it just didn't seem like they wanted to make the playoffs at the end of the season. Especially when you see the game between Chicago and Toronto in Toronto, you can tell they didn't really want to make the playoffs. When Chicago made the eighth seed, we was excited about that, because we knew we had to be in tune every possession, every game, because that team plays hard no matter the score and no matter the time, and no matter what the series is.”

Lebron made this statement after beating the Bulls in the first round. First of all, come one Lebron, it's "we were excited," not, "we was excited." Second, I was at that game between the Raps and the Bulls, and I could not agree more. My buddy and I left in the middle of the fourth quarter - something I rarely do - in principle and disgust. The raptors checked out. For weeks prior I had been saying that missing the playoffs was the practical move. We would have undoubtedly been swept in the first round by the Lebrons. By missing the playoffs we secure our first round pick, giving away our second to Miami (if we had made it, Miami owned that first rounder), giving us a shot - 0.6% of a shot to be exact, lol - at John Wall. But when it came down to the wire, as a fan, I wanted to see them in the postseason, even if it meant complete embarrassment at the hands of Lebron James and co.

Raptors fans are now in a weird limbo. Our star player can bolt this off-season, something we are very familiar with. But this time around, the star has agreed to be a professional and work with the organization to return value. That is, of course, if he decides to leave. For a number of years now this has been a hotly debated issue, and it seemed that most in the American media believed that it was a no brainer that Bosh would bolt. Following this situation closely, I do not believe that to be the case. Bosh has maintained that he is undecided. On friday night Bosh offered a glimpse into his heart via twitter. And for a moment it appeared as if he had spilled the beans, "Been waiting to ask. Where should I go next season and why?" For a star of Bosh's magnitude, wording on twitter counts big time. So for twenty minutes, it appeared that Bosh was gone. Then he tweeted this, "Ok... Let me rephrase the question. Should I stay or should I go?" ...And the saga continues.

Naturally, for a dude of Bosh's talent, he wants to win, and that is his primary motivator. For what it's worth I believe that Bryan Colangelo has done a decent job in trying to bring in talent to compete, but for whatever reason: coaching, partying, perhaps even a lack of leadership on Bosh's part, the raps just can't get it done. 

If Bosh does decide to stay, the status quo will not do. Improvement from Demar, Sonny, Amir, and even better coaching will not make this team a championship contender. So what does BC do this off-season to right the ship. There are really only a few scenarios that come to mind.

Firstly, Calderon has to go. Look, I love Calderon's offensive game, he's a true facilitator, not the greatest shooter, but knows his role. However, he is a huge liability on defense: the raptors worst one-on-one defender, always looking for help, which brings other players out of position. Jack on the other hand was noted as a defensive leader throughout the season, and this is exactly what the raptors need. Moreover, Calderon has value around the league. 

Look at the Pistons for example. Dumars has made his intentions about this off-season fairly clear. This team is a collection of talent that does not mesh, they need a remake. It appears that Rip and maybe even Prince are out. And weirdly, they will be looking for a point guard too. They see Stuckey as more of a scorer, so bringing in a facilitator like Calderon is probably there best option. A trade scenario with the Pistons seems like a perfect fit. We could package Calderon with the expiring deals of Reggie Evans or Marcus Banks for Rip and Will Bynum, for example. Who knows, maybe we even convince them to take on Turkoglu in exchange for Prince. While I would jump at the any of these scenarios, I believe that if we get rid of Calderon, Turkoglu's value on the team increases. Sure Turk underperformed this past season, but maybe that was a motivation/team role situation. With Jack at the helm, the 'ball' will be back in his hands more often, like in Orlando, and maybe he goes back to form. Imagine a front nine players of Bargnani, Bosh, Turkoglu/Prince, Rip, Jack, Amir, Demar, Wright, Sonny and the story begins to look pretty good.

Other scenarios, while less likely, might play out as well. Perhaps we shake O.J. Mayo away from the Grizzlies. They will be hard pressed to pay him once his contract expires, as Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph will be re-upping this summer for big deals. They need a point, Conley just wont cut it. And already tried to deal him at the deadline for Monta Ellis. Who might be another - even less likely, and not somebody I even want on the raps - player we go after this summer.

All of this assumes that Bosh stays, a 50-50 proposition right now. If he goes there are tones of scenarios that have the Raps becoming contenders in the near future. Stay tuned for those scenarios in an upcoming post.